Published win rate
100 ÷ published odds denominatorPublished odds of 1 in 3.45 become 28.99%. They describe the original game, not the tickets currently in a retailer.
Open methodology
Every number should earn your trust.
Scout ranks cards using reproducible launch data and current validated top-prize records. It leaves gaps visible and never turns a score into a claim about live winning odds.
01 · Inputs
Six comparable metrics
The balanced model uses the first five. Prize size is intentionally separate and only used for that explicit priority.
Profit-prize percentage
original prizes worth more than the ticket ÷ original print runA prize equal to the ticket price is break-even and is not counted as profit. This metric is unavailable without a complete launch prize table and print run.
Estimated return at launch
total original prize value ÷ total original ticket sales valueThis uses the launch print run and prize table. It is not a current return, and it is never inferred when the inputs are incomplete.
Published top-prize position
top prizes shown as remaining ÷ published total top prizesThe published total is the catalogue total for the game and includes additional print batches where applicable. This is a rough position indicator, not the current chance of winning a top prize.
Data freshness
score halves for every 14 days since the latest checkOlder evidence lowers both the score contribution and data confidence. Fresh data still cannot reveal unsold inventory.
Recorded top-prize size
advertised top prize, only when at least one is recorded as remainingUsed only when the user explicitly selects Biggest prize. It is not part of the balanced score.
02 · Fair comparison
Normalising different kinds of evidence
Odds, percentages and pound values have different scales. For each metric, Scout compares a card with the active catalogue and maps the lowest known value to 0 and highest to 1. If all known values are equal, each receives a neutral 0.5. Missing values stay missing. Freshness already has an absolute zero-to-one scale, so Scout uses its age-decay value directly and also lowers the separate confidence rating. If freshness is the only available weighted metric, Scout shows “Insufficient data” instead of publishing a recommendation score.
(card value − catalogue minimum) ÷ (catalogue maximum − catalogue minimum)03 · Priorities
Weights change when your priority changes
| Priority | Odds | Profit | Return | Top position | Freshness | Prize size |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Balanced | 30% | 25% | 20% | 15% | 10% | 0% |
| Any prize | 65% | 10% | 10% | 5% | 10% | 0% |
| Profit prize | 10% | 65% | 10% | 5% | 5% | 0% |
| Top-prize position | 5% | 5% | 5% | 75% | 10% | 0% |
| Value at launch | 10% | 20% | 55% | 5% | 10% | 0% |
| Biggest prize | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 100% |
The default weights are 30% published odds, 25% profit-prize percentage, 20% estimated launch return, 15% published top-prize position and 10% freshness.
04 · Gaps
Missing does not mean zero
When a required value is unavailable, Scout removes that metric and divides the remaining weighted contributions by their available weight. It never invents a print run or assumes that an absent top-prize count is zero. The confidence indicator falls as important evidence disappears.
score = 100 × weighted known values ÷ known weights05 · Confidence
Confidence is about data, not winning
The rating combines analytical coverage, evidence age and source provenance. A high rating means the published-data calculation is well supported. It does not mean the card is likely to win. Demonstration records are always marked “Demo - not rated”.
06 · Worked example
A fictional £5 card with an additional print
Published odds1 in 3.45Win rate = 28.99%
Initial-print top prizes4From the launch prize table
Published total top prizes5Includes the additional print
Top prizes remaining1Published position = 20%
Print run1,000,000Original tickets
Profit prizes51,004Share = 5.10%
If the original prize table paid £1.5 million across a £5 million total ticket sales value, the estimated return at launch is 30%. That figure says nothing about which prizes or tickets remain today.
07 · Non-negotiable limits
What this analysis cannot know
- Remaining unsold ticket counts are not published, so exact current odds cannot be calculated.
- A top prize shown as remaining may have been purchased but not yet validated.
- Published overall odds normally relate to the original print run.
- Retailers may hold packs from different distribution periods.
- Several top prizes remaining does not automatically make a card a stronger choice.
- The published top-prize total may include additional print batches and can differ from the initial-print prize table.
- Scratchcards have negative expected value and should be treated as entertainment.
08 · Sources and lawful updates
Official evidence, checked cautiously
The operator’s catalogue and Game Procedures are publicly viewable in a browser, but no documented public scratchcard API was found and routine requests returned access-control responses during development. Scout does not work around those controls. The protected admin tool can make a low-frequency check of a known official Procedure PDF and will stop on a refusal or challenge. Automatic catalogue discovery and game-status changes remain disabled until ordinary access and the page format have been validated.
All ScratchcardsCatalogue and game links ↗Game closuresClosure and final claim dates ↗Top Prize Management CodeValidated-prize semantics ↗Scratchcard RulesOfficial game rules ↗
Safest update route: an administrator uses the guarded Procedure checker for launch data, checks the official catalogue and closure table, then imports any catalogue changes as a timestamped CSV or JSON batch for validation and review. Open admin.